www.markbraun.net

 

Good morning,

 

Here are today’s charts:

 

http://www.markbraun.net/Feb410/02-22-10.zip

 

The index rally remained strong throughout last week.  Let’s keep in mind that we still have key .786 resistance on the daily SPX, INDU, NDX and RUT charts.  As mentioned previously, this is a concern because if the current daily swings complete to upside, we’ll see a break of key resistance zones on the weekly SPX and INDU charts.  Manage any longer term/swing long positions tightly until we see a break of these key .786 resistance levels.    I’ve labeled the strongest nearby support and resistance levels on the 45 minute ES, YM, NQ and TF charts as well.  The labeled .786 resistance on those charts are the key points that I’m referring to.  You can see that TF is testing it now.

 

The dollar continues to consolidate near the current swing highs but there’s no sign of a significant support break at this point.  Please keep this in mind while evaluating commodity and currency positions!  While the direct correlation may not continue, it’s been clear so far that as the dollar rallies it has a direct impact on the stability of the rallies in other markets.  The closest timing high on the dollar is shaping up for the end of March/start of April on the weekly chart, if we’re rallying into it.  I’ll work on refining this on the daily chart as we get closer to this timing zone.

 

So far the bond is holding the 50 minute double bottom made against the target extensions right on top of our key daily .786 support.  We’re also holding the high made in Friday afternoon’s timing resistance.   We’d need a break above 117’18 in order to make significant headway to upside, and so far this just looks like a typical bond corrective bounce and consolidation before heading to new lows.  Remember though, longer term is showing as consolidated until we see a break of a daily .786 level.  I have a downside scenario outlined on the daily chart should we see a breakdown of key support.   There may be a clue regarding bond directionality on the TLT weekly chart; note that the large Gartley resistance pattern continues to play out to target.  Each bounce since the major high was put in has held resistance perfectly.  It’s much easier to see this on TLT than it is on the bond contract since we don’t have to consider price adjustments for rollover.

 

Timing information on GLD, SLV and USO daily charts tells us the focus of resistance on these commodities lands towards the end of this week/start of next.   Note that these are approaching initial daily targets, along with the Gold, Silver and Crude futures.

 

Emphasis remains to downside on Soybeans and Wheat.  Corn holding key support.  We’ll roll the dailies to the next contracts this week. Please let me know if you need any shorter term info on the grains.

 

Notes on the 60 minute currency charts take the daily and weekly patterns into consideration as well.

 

Have a great day!

 

Mark

 

www.markbraun.net